August 1st, 2023 | RYAN TYLER

Bad News: Trudeau Could Make A Comeback

In the event of a promising economic turnaround, more Canadians might give him another chance.

This October, Justin Trudeau will officially cross the eight-year mark of his tenure, making it even less likely for him to win re-election. According to the latest polls from Abacus and Leger, the Liberal Party is now poised to lose key seats in Ontario, the GTA and the Maritimes, paving the way for a possible Conservative majority. However, this is still Canada and the possibility that Trudeau could regain some footing is always in the cards. These are some election scenarios that could play out.

The Comeback

There are some signs that both the U.S. and Canada could avoid a deep recession. It would break all the conventional wisdom and historical norms, but strong GDP and employment data could make a soft landing more likely. With yield curves now mimicking what happened before every prior recession and the Great Depression, we shouldn't count out a long, painful and unpredictable decline in economic fortunes—but at this moment, things look better than they should.

If this continues and we do, somehow, pull ourselves out of an economic catastrophe, Justin Trudeau could win back some of his shine. Let's be honest, with trillions in national debt, an inevitable economic catastrophe lurks on the horizon, but it might come a bit slower. If it comes too slow and things start looking up, Liberals will exploit the success and use it to campaign in the next election.

Canadians aren't smart when it comes to economics. Most of them are still confused about how inflation happened, so they shouldn't be expected to know what kind of economic horrors await them over the next ten to twenty years. Trudeau's spending has sealed Canada's fate long into the future and much of the small economic wins we're seeing now are temporary. This “temporary” could last long enough for Canadians to think it's something more long term.

If inflation keeps coming down and unemployment stays at 5% or lower, Canadians will be fooled into thinking Liberals have been successful.

Trudeau probably won't win a majority ever again, but he could win another minority and revisit a second NDP coalition with Jagmeet Singh. If Conservatives can't pull off a strong enough win to negotiate a deal with the Bloc (who are also fed up with Trudeau), it'll be as good as a Liberal majority. We'll be stuck with Trudeau/Singh 2.0 for four more years with anything less than a strong Conservative and Bloc win.

A Massive Conservative Majority

Pierre Poilievre is in a good position to win a majority. If regional polls from Abacus and Leger are true, Liberals are losing ground quickly in the GTA, Ontario and Atlantic provinces. A massive Poilievre majority isn't in the cards right now, but if Trudeau's decline in these regions continues, it will be.

High costs of living are trumping the decline in inflation. Although inflation has dipped below 3%, Canadians aren't noticing a difference in the rental market, at the gas pumps, or at the grocery store. Mortgage rates are up for homeowners, insurance premiums are skyrocketing and Trudeau's government is still committed to bringing in one million immigrants over the next two years.

Corporate media and economists have finally bit the bullet and conceded that high immigration is partly responsible for Canada's ongoing housing shortage.

If immigration starts to lose favour among Canadians, Pierre Poilievre will need to address it. So far, he hasn't. If it becomes a hot topic in time for the next election, Conservatives will need to adapt to the rising populist sentiments, or face losing seats and votes to someone else. As of now, Poilievre's CPC is shying away from admitting that 500,000 immigrants per year might not be healthy for Canada's quality of life. In the best case scenario, it wouldn't matter—because every other party except the PPC supports high immigration.

If Poilievre can juggle high immigration with smart policies that counteract the increased demand for housing, healthcare and other services, he could win big.

A Useless Conservative Minority

A Conservative minority would be as useful and long-lasting as a paper towel in a hurricane. Unless the CPC can manage a coalition with the Bloc (if they win enough seats), a Conservative minority would fall within days. Poilievre wouldn't even be able to negotiate forming a government before Trudeau and Singh scratch out another deal.

A Poilievre minority would be a total loss, unless...

A Conservative/Bloc Coalition

The word coalition means something different to the poli-dorks than it does to me. The current Liberal/NDP agreement isn't really a coalition that fits the standards within the Westminster system, but it might as well be. A standard coalition would mean members of both parties form a cabinet.

As far as I'm concerned, it is a fucking coalition.

Any time two parties come together to initiate and pass legislation, like the NDP and Liberals have, it is as good as a coalition. Singh might as well be a member of Trudeau's cabinet, especially if he is responsible for blackmailing the government into doing things it normally wouldn't do—like passing universal dental-care and pharma-care.

Truth be told, Singh is so scared of a Conservative government that he would probably pull Trudeau's pants down and go to town to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister. At the end of the day, Trudeau can call an election any time, so the two parties can hold each other hostage based on whatever the public opinion polls are saying. A snap election at the wrong time could lead to big losses for the NDP.

For a Conservative minority to work, it would need the Bloc's support. So, if we see Poilievre kissing up to Blanchet, we'll know why. In fact, the most strategically sensible thing for Conservatives to do would be to form a pact with the Bloc. A pact in which Conservatives agree to stop campaigning in Quebec. The ten seats Poilievre might win aren't worth risking a future coalition with Blanchet. In exchange, Blanchet would prop up a Conservative government.

A Repeat Of 2011

2011 was an interesting year. Harper finally won his long-coveted majority through Liberal/NDP vote splitting. The Liberal Party's total collapse under Michael Ignatieff led to an historic win for the NDP and the first Conservative Party majority in history. (not counting Brian Mulroney)

Harper's connections to the Reform Party made him “the most right-wing prime minister” in Canada's history.

Aside from his electoral wizardry, Stephen Harper's four years were a waste of time. He pissed off the CBC, left dozens of senate seats vacant, and created an hysterical sentiment of hatred around himself. Some could argue that Harper is responsible for driving the Liberal Party to the far left and making Canadian voters more open to Trudeau's idiotic policies. By 2015, Harper had become so unpopular that voters were willing to vote for a total moron who was younger and better looking.

Right now, Trudeau is more unpopular than Harper was in 2014 and 2015.

Poilievre could capitalize on Trudeau's historic lack of popularity and become prime minister in the same way. If polls are accurate, Trudeau is less than 10% ahead of Singh's NDP. If that gap starts to close, we may see a repeat of 2011.

Trudeau Is Probably Done

Despite everything I have talked about here, Justin Trudeau is probably finished. If he knows he is finished, he'll likely resign before the next election. His ego might keep him in the race, but unless things change, he will probably face a humiliating defeat to Poilievre.

Now that scrutiny has been placed on China and Canada's election integrity, Trudeau's chances of winning are even slimmer than before. The next election will be put under a microscope and any attempts by any party to manipulate results will become news. Any money coming from any foreign country will raise red flags, leaving few options for Trudeau to weasel his way into another election victory.

Likewise, the Conservatives will need to make sure they don't accept any dark money or donations from Republican-aligned entities in the United States.