Liberal Minority: What Probably Happens Now
October 24th, 2019 | RR
Election night is over with a typically Canadian result. Canadians re-elected one of the most corrupt and arrogant Liberal governments in history, all in the name of flaunting their phony progressivism and idiotic obsession with identity politics. Canadians couldn't bear losing their clown prince to a normal, steak-and-potatoes family man with real values. As I predicted, progressives and leftists panicked at the last minute and handed Justin Trudeau a bigger minority than anyone was forecasting. Just 13 seats shy of a majority, the Liberals benefited from the irrational and toxic fear of conservatism that infects the most ordinary Canadians.
While pundits and journalists at the CBC and CTV could barely contain their excitement, more than six million Conservative voters were left wondering what to do next. As the days unfold, we will start to get a clear picture of how to move forward.
Despite losing, Andrew Scheer took the Conservative Party to the highest vote count it has ever achieved in its entire history at 6.1 million. He also won the popular vote. At the height of the party's power in 2011, Stephen Harper only raked in 5.8 million votes to form a majority.
At first, before all the votes were fully counted, it seemed reasonable to call for Scheer's resignation, but as we see the final numbers—it seems more reasonable for him to stay on. Andrew Scheer did not lose on election night, despite what some bitter PPC voters want you to think. The fact of the matter is that Maxime Bernier and his party lost miserably. No more than 300,000 Canadians from coast to coast had a taste for his silly brand of politics.
Maxime Bernier is finished. The PPC is finished. With that chapter behind us, we can all move forward and start focusing on what really matters: getting rid of Trudeau.
A lot of things failed to pan out how they were supposed to, not just for Conservatives, but for everyone. As a result, we have one of the strangest and most unpredictable situations we have seen in a long time.
A Weaker NDP
Jagmeet Singh bombed. He didn't bomb because he wasn't popular or because everyone is racist, he bombed because progressives and anti-conservative nutbags panicked at the last minute. They all knew the NDP would never form government, so they had to rally behind Trudeau in order to guarantee there would be no Conservative government. I predicted this on the night before the election here. Luckily, it wasn't a strong enough panic to result in a Liberal majority.
Now, with an NDP trimmed down by 15 seats, the Liberal minority has a shakier ground to stand on. Yes, they have a strong minority with 157 seats, but discontent inside the NDP's base is sure to start boiling soon and an alliance with the separatist Bloc would turn Canadians away from any party willing to entertain it. That leaves the Liberals with few options.
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"We can all move forward and start focusing on what really matters: getting rid of Trudeau."
The NDP will likely see their poll numbers rise back up, especially if Jagmeet Singh stays on as leader. During the campaign, he was the most popular leader and the most Googled after the debates. Again, the only reason he lost was because of a progressive panic. As NDP numbers start to breach 25% over the next few months, he will want to ensure he keeps his base happy and the Trudeau government on its toes.
Once NDP numbers hit 30%, the NDP will be looking to trigger an election. When they do, the Liberals will fall and we'll go back to the polls. With the NDP polling at 30%, the momentum would be there to convince voters that the party can actually form government. However, in order to get to 30%, Singh needs to stay relevant and entertaining. He needs to play it safe and galvanize his base by holding Trudeau accountable. After losing more seats in this election, Singh will be looking to prove that he can live up to Jack Layton in the next one.
The Bloc is allegedly putting pressure on the Liberal minority to prevent pipelines from being built in Quebec, according to the Globe & Mail. Jagmeet Singh has made it clear his party wants nothing to do with pipelines. Do the math and it looks like Justin Trudeau has only two choices: capitulate and alienate Western provinces even more, or defy the NDP and Bloc by trying to get pipelines built. Either scenario puts the Trudeau government in harm's way.
If Trudeau appeases the Bloc or the NDP to maintain his minority, Alberta, BC, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan will offer poor prospects for the Liberal Party in the next election—whenever that might be. If Trudeau defies the NDP and Bloc on pipelines, he risks being toppled and going back on the campaign trail.
Pipelines could be the deal breaker for the Liberal government in the coming months, meaning that Conservatives and provincial leaders need to make it an issue. Recent polls show a majority of Canadians (53%) wanting to have the Trans Mountain pipeline built, with the only majority against it being in the province of Quebec.
Good luck working that out, Justin.
The Poisonous Bloc
The Bloc is a separatist party. Andrew Scheer made the right move during the campaign by ruling out a possible coalition with the Bloc. If Justin Trudeau were dumb enough—or desperate enough—to form an alliance with the Bloc in the event of Jagmeet Singh refusing to play ball, the Liberals would further tarnish their own image everywhere outside of Quebec. The same is true for any party.
No smart political strategist would let their leader go anywhere near the Bloc. Any party that does risks losing badly when the writ drops again. If Trudeau tries to make a secret deal and it leaks, it would do more damage than letting his minority topple by refusing the Bloc any leverage.
Andrew Scheer Stays On
Seeing the final election numbers, there is absolutely no reason for Andrew Scheer to resign. A shoddy poll conducted by Ipsos the night after the election showed a majority of Canadians in favour of Scheer's resignation. The poll has no merit, given that a majority of Canadians voted against Scheer to begin with and the Conservative voters that played a roll in the poll were justifiably angry and shocked to see Trudeau win 157 seats.
As the dust continues to settle, we are seeing a record 6.1M votes for the Conservative Party—mostly from the West. Andrew Scheer was able to reach beyond the Conservative Party base and pull in 500,000 more votes than Stephen Harper in 2015. That's not a loss, that's growth. Scheer may have been weak in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, but he still pulled in 6 more seats from Atlantic provinces than Harper did in 2015.
A leadership race would throw the Conservative Party into turmoil. The party saw a damaging 50/50 split in the last leadership contest, so there is no point risking it again during a Liberal minority. Andrew Scheer will (and must) stay on as the party's leader—especially now that Maxime Bernier has been permanently knocked out of the running.
The next election needs a strong, confident Conservative Party with a stable, permanent leader. If Scheer fails again and Trudeau manages to win a majority, then we can (and should) talk about Andrew Scheer's resignation.
The Next Election
We don't know when the next election will be, but we can count on Jagmeet Singh to prop up the corrupt Liberal minority for at least six months. Every party leader would agree that it's too soon to go back to the polls any earlier than that. Voters don't want to go through another filthy campaign just yet. They need time to re-adjust.
Besides, we need to allow Canadians to see what kind of damage a Liberal minority propped up by the NDP can do. After the debacles in India, at home (SNC-Lavalin) and from his own past, we shouldn't assume Justin Trudeau will be able to have the composure or deal-making abilities required to maintain a minority government for very long.
Strap yourselves in and stay engaged. Our time is coming.
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