Bernie Sanders Has No Chance
The joke goes, “Bernie Sanders hated millionaires until he became one. Now he hates billionaires.” The sad truth is that Bernie's hatred of wealth and his far left, socialist policies have been adopted by some mainstream Democrats. Bernie Sanders did, indeed, spark a revolution in America by convincing the Democratic Party that socialism pays in politics. The days of believing that Americans would never accept full socialism may be behind us now, as Democratic heavy weights like Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Beto O'Rourke sell socialist ideas to win support in every corner of America. As for Bernie Sanders, his own success in sparking a revolution on America's left could be what blocks his chances of winning the Democratic nomination next year.
The Democrats no longer need Bernie Sanders because his ideas are being adopted by fresh, young Democrat hopefuls. Socialism in America now looks like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Julian Castro.
If Bernie Sanders couldn't even beat Hillary Clinton in places like New York and California, he will have even less luck trying to beat other socialist contenders like Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke. The socialist torch once belonged to Bernie Sanders alone, but the flame is now being shared with younger, more hip Democrats. The Democrats' growing socialist voting block is no longer consolidated under one candidate, which will be advantageous for centrist Democrats like Joe Biden and Kirsten Gillibrand. In what will be one the most crowded Democratic fields in history, Bernie Sanders stands virtually no chance at winning the party's nomination.
Bernie Sanders struggled with black and Latino Democrat voters in 2016, meaning that his struggles will only expand against contenders like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro. Believe it or not, according to Gallup, black and Latino Democrat voters are more conservative than white Democrat voters and, therefore, are less likely to identify with Bernie Sanders or his policies.
White Democrats are more liberal and make up a majority of would-be Sanders voters. With candidates like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Julian Castro cutting into Bernie's difficult and slim chances among Latino and black voters, the possibility of Bernie Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee in 2020 decreases significantly.
Candidates like Harris, Booker and Castro also have a strong appeal among the Democrats' white, liberal voters. In 2016, Clinton was more popular than Sanders among non-white primary voters—making 2020 a playground filled with landmines and pitfalls for Bernie Sanders.
Bernie Sanders was more popular than Clinton among Democrat voters under the age of 45. To his detriment, however, older voters are more likely than younger voters to vote in primaries and participate in caucuses. In 2016, Sanders dominated Clinton in the 18-29 demographic, but was outnumbered by Clinton's older, more engaged supporters.
The Democrats' demographic numbers have not shifted that far since 2016, which could indicate similar trends for Bernie Sanders in 2020. Making it worse could be the entrance of younger, more hip Democrat contenders like the ones mentioned above. Julian Castro has already entered, along with Cory Booker and Kamala Harris—all of who could cut deeply into Bernie Sanders' youth vote.
Bernie Sanders himself is closing in on 80-years-old. In less than three years, he would make the oldest president in history if he were to beat Donald Trump or any Republican nominee in 2020. This would make his time and influence in office limited, which could in turn dissuade voters from choosing him as their nominee when other, younger candidates are carrying the same message.
When it comes to age, the demographic numbers from the Democratic Party and Bernie's own age draw out a tough road map for the elderly democratic socialist. 2016 was a better year for Sanders, but he blew it.
Attacks On Socialism
It can be discouraging to see so many Americans embracing socialism, but on the other hand, it is encouraging to see candidates like Kamala Harris reject socialism. Powerful messaging and campaigning can successfully reverse people's positive views on socialism. If such attacks continue from inside and outside the party, socialism may become less favorable to Democrat voters in time.
Trump proudly declared, during the State Of The Union, that America will never be a socialist country. Third-party candidate and Starbucks CEO, Howard Schultz, has also taken aggressive shots at socialism and those who try to sell it in America.
“I don't believe what Elizabeth Warren stands for. I don't believe the country should be heading to socialism,” Schultz said on MSNBC's Morning Joe. “I think she believes in programs that will lead to a level of socialism in America.”
Howard Schultz has been a Democrat donor and is well-known as a progressive. His status as a billionaire often stirs controversy among Democrats on the far left, which encouraged Schultz to explore a run for president as an independent—freeing him of the need to run in primaries and to win a party's nomination.
The Democratic Party will be facing the scourge of socialism and the threat of socialists dividing and alienating more moderate and conservative Democrats. To ward off the damaging effects of far left- fringe policies and ideas, more moderate candidates will begin to attack socialism in an effort to steer the party back toward sanity. It could also be true that the party's deep-seated establishment (Clintonites) could work to upend and diminish a socialist candidate's chances to save the party from a fringe takeover—similar to how Hillary Clinton attempted to coerce the DNC to rig primaries and debates in her favor.
Bernie Sanders will not win the Democratic nomination in 2020. The Democratic field will be stacked with competing socialists, influential centrists and powerful moderates with wealthy, capitalist donors backing their efforts. Socialism is still considered fringe, although it is a popular selling feature for candidates inside the party. In a general election, a socialist Democrat would be considered a liability for the party.
He may be polling high against Donald Trump, but we all know how the polling turned out in 2016. A socialist like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would serve up a laundry list of liabilities for a party trying to show it can do better than Donald Trump. When campaigning begins, media scrutiny will come with it. With a growing conservative media in America, socialist policies will come with self-destructive detonation devices attached to them—making plenty of fodder for people like Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin and Glenn Beck.
Bernie Sanders cannot and will not win the Democratic nomination, even though he might come close. Pundits on the left and far left will build him up, but some may tear him down. Publications like Salon have begun to attack Sanders' “whiteness” and wealth before the primaries have even begun, all while attempting to prop up female and minority candidates like Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren.
If this is an indication of the future, it looks like Bernie Sanders might not even have left-wing media on his side anymore.
Good luck, Bernie. You'll need it.