Brazil Should Liberate Venezuela?
Jair Bolsonaro won power in Brazil last November and headlines around the world were warning of a looming military dictatorship powered by Trump inspired populism. Since then... silence. As with most manufactured media panics, Brazil’s election result was a flash in the pan in terms of global cultural relevance. Bolsonaro has quietly stacked his cabinet with military men and methodically begun the process of effecting change in Brazil. It remains to be seen whether or not his populist rhetoric and grandstanding during the campaign will amount to much beyond traditional centre-right management, but there is an appetite for future-building in South America and the leftist politics of twenty years ago are looking pretty stale.
Nowhere is this more evident than Venezuela.
Read this article for a recap of the catastrophic twenty year collapse of the country due to leftist Casto-inspired policy making. This is old school socialism of the worst kind. Diabolical and deathly. Venezuela has been annihilated.
I was talking to a man from Venezuela who had recently returned from visiting relatives stuck behind. He confirmed the stories and revealed that there isn’t a way to vote Venezuela out of their mess. He suggested a US backed coalition of South American nations invading and restoring order. I nodded, but had my doubts. The US has had enough of backing coalitions and invading foreign countries. The bordering nations aren’t exactly up to the job of conquering and controlling their neighbouring nation anyway, all that is except for one.
Brazil has the power and the leadership and the means and the method to effect regime change in Venezuela. Bolsonaro should take his opportunity as leader to do something truly transformative and ambitious. Bolsonaro should invade, conquer and annex Venezuela.
1. It would be an easy victory
Venezuela has undergone enormous suffering. The populace may appear to be supporting the current regime, but this is likely just a case of keeping up appearances in the face of a totalitarian administration. The historical outcomes of liberating countries from their own governments hasn’t been good over the past twenty years, but Venezuela is unlikely to have the same fate as Iraq or Afghanistan. There are three reasons for this.
1. Venezuela is overwhelmingly Christian (88%). You’re not going to have tribal, sectarian violence that comes from places like post-invasion Iraq and Afghanistan.
2. Venezuela is already in a state of collapse. It is unlikely that the military would put up much of a fight if the average soldier realized that losing was inevitable and capitulating was profitable. Brazil has a modern and highly funded military, while Venezuela tries to cope with thousands of soldiers deserting their units.
3. Brazil’s military is superior on every metric. Brazil outspends Venezuela by $28 billion a year. They are a modern superpower in the making, while Venezuela is drifting into anarchy.
2. The people would welcome liberation
The people of Venezuela need a liberator. They’ve come to the conclusion that Chavez was a horrible mistake and Maduro is a disaster, but there is no alternative. Democracy has crashed along with the economy. If Bolsonaro launched an invasion, the Brazilian soldiers would be met on the highways with maps and flowers. Of course violence would spark up here and there, but a firm hand and prosperous path forward would allow hope for a hopeless people.
The millions upon millions of expatriates living around the globe would likewise be supportive and more willing to return home, bringing their foreign wealth with them. The recovery time necessary for Venezuela would still be measured in decades, but it would amount to a recovery nonetheless
3. It would offer Brazil bounty
Brazil would expand the national borders for the first time since the days of the First Republic. It would incorporate 30 million new citizens and provide common markets and common currency, which would both expand opportunities for Brazil while providing prosperity and stability for Venezuela.
The government and schools would provide instruction in Portuguese and within a generation Venezuela would consider itself a special province in the tapestry of Brazil. One generation more and assimilation would be complete.
The natural resources would be managed more effectively and state-run enterprises like Petrobras could take over the Venezuelan oil fields. This alone is worth justifying the cost.
Most importantly, it would offer Brazil a project and a focus that would propel opportunity, prosperity and liberty throughout the region. It would project national greatness and also serve as a warning to the other surrounding countries in the area... keep your act together or the hegemonic power in the neighbourhood will seize you.
Bolsonaro has an opportunity to become a great man of history. Getting bogged down in managerial political process is a hallmark of ambition-killing democracy. The time is ripe for men of action and ambition. Big and bold moves are what the world needs in the 21st century, not the timidity of procedural doctrine and inertia. Bolsonaro and his administration have been handed power in order to produce results and affect change. He needs to think big in order to make an impression and conquering a failed socialist state would send a message around the world.
History is waiting.