Polls And Trudeau Are Failing
Four recent by-elections have shown a crack in Justin Trudeau's armour and in Canada's opinion polling methods, while the aftermath of the elections revealed the blatant and bloated bias of Canada's public broadcasting corporation. Two major Conservative strongholds in Manitoba failed to turn red last month, even though three separate opinion polls had suggested a Liberal landslide in the riding of Brandon-Souris. The worst of the polls was conducted by Forum Research and published the day before the election. The poll showed Liberal candidate, Rolf Dinsdale, leading by 29%. The next day, after Dinsdale lost by a hair to Larry Maguire, the CBC began bolstering Justin Trudeau and naming him the biggest winner of the evening. The Toronto Star followed suit immediately by being more blatant in declaring Trudeau the winner. Factually, the CBC's declaration doesn't stand up and the Liberal Party's accomplishments are strikingly weaker than anyone had predicted.
The Senate Scandal was supposed to be the cause of Stephen Harper's demise. Everyone in Canada's liberal circles were predicting significant gains in Liberal support across the country. Months after Trudeau won the leadership, there was even talk of weakening Tory support in the prairies and inside rural strongholds in Alberta and Saskatchewan. If Brandon-Souris and Provencher are any indication, there is now solid evidence suggesting that all of these predictions were just talk and wishful thinking. The opinion polls and analysis offered by Liberal strategists and polling firms were wrong. For Liberals, nothing could be more troubling. The by-elections of November, 2013, are a sign that Justin Trudeau's hard work and popularity haven't paid off. What Liberals should find even more troubling is the fact that positive media coverage hasn't helped them achieve their goals either.
Tory support diminished the most in places where it never mattered, like Toronto and Montreal, where the seats have traditionally been held by either Liberals or New Democrats. When it came to hitting the Conservatives where it matters, the Liberals failed. The only success Liberals can claim is in their efforts to undermine the NDP. Vexing the NDP establishment is where Trudeau actually succeeded, even on election night when he purposefully ripped off one of Jack Layton's more popular quotes. Truthfully, however, kicking the NDP when they're down can hardly be called noble. Then again, not much Trudeau has done since becoming Liberal leader could be called noble.
To add salt to Liberal wounds, voter turnouts in both Montreal and Toronto were devastating. Toronto Centre checked out at 38%, while the Bourassa riding did even worse at 26%. The riding with the highest turnout happened to be Brandon-Souris with 44%, where Tory support trumped expectations. These mathematical facts confirm that Liberal support is meager and far below expectations. These numbers confirm that Conservative support is still strong and that Conservative supporters will show up when it matters.
Canada's liberal media will continue to garnish every one of Trudeau's words and victories. Polls will likely continue to be false, but Canada's media will continue to use them as evidence for Liberal gains. Conservatives will continue to be assailed by the CBC, Rabble, and the Toronto Star. No Conservative accomplishments will ever gain praise, but the party will soldier on. As the results in Brandon-Souris show, Conservatives will continue to win in the face of adversity. Conservative Party supporters will continue to tune out the media, think independently and continue to show up at the polls when it matters the most.