Few Good Scenarios For Conservatives

September 1st, 2019 | JH

Like you, I am looking forward to the election this fall and I hope we will see the end of Justin Trudeau’s political career. Unfortunately, the best case scenario is going to be rather muted for conservatives. Getting rid of Justin Trudeau is the best case scenario, but it is hardly a conservative win. What do I mean? Let’s run through the four possible outcomes…

1. Conservative majority

Let’s say Andrew Scheer gets lucky and is able to win 170 seats. This will ensure that the Conservatives have four years to hopefully undo some of the damage that Justin’s Liberals have inflicted on the country. This will also likely result in Justin Trudeau leaving politics for good. The Liberal party is already stewing behind the scenes and discontent is waiting for any possible failure. 

Fear not, however, because Justin will likely give a sigh of relief and welcome a future of feel-good speech making and endless days on the beach. He was born a wandering dilettante and should remain one after his political career comes crashing down.

The longer term problem with this scenario is that Scheer’s team (as of this writing) appears to be taking the cuckservative approach to the upcoming campaign. If they go all in on cucking and it provides them with a win, then prepare for four years of disappointment beyond even what Harper gave us. 

I’ll reserve judgement until the campaign unfolds, but past behaviour is the greatest predictor of future behaviour and it looks like Scheer is going to cuck throughout the campaign. What’s the point of winning if the result we get is cuckservative? With that in mind, this is still the best outcome and a cuckservative alternative to Trudeau’s aggressive woke SJW schtick will be a welcome relief, but nothing to celebrate.

2. Conservative minority

If the Conservatives get a minority the opposition will join together and form a nightmare coalition. They will do this for sure this time, because of the lessons learned from Stephan Dion in 2008.

A little refresher for young and/or forgetful readers. In 2008, Stephen Harper won a solid minority after having governed for about two years. Stephan Dion decided to form a three way coalition with Jack Layton’s NDP and the Bloc Québécois. Public outrage ensued and Harper bought some time. The polls showed people didn’t like the idea and the Liberals got cold feet. They cancelled the coalition and Harper governed until 2011. He used the threat of another coalition to secure his first and last majority.

The long term lesson was learned. Regardless of popular opinion... if you can seize power,do so. The Liberals getting scared meant Harper governed for seven more years. Consequently, the Liberals of today will never let a Conservative win if they have the power to stop it from happening. Scheer having a “strong showing” isn’t enough. Anything short of a majority will leave us with a Liberal-NDP coalition. This would be the wokest, most extreme leftist government in the history of the country. It would be a catastrophe.

3. The Liberals win a minority

If the Liberals win a minority they will probably govern much like they have over the past four years, but will lean further left in order to provide concessions to the NDP. We’ll probably get a couple of years of super-left Liberal governance before facing another election.

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"What’s the point of winning if the result we get is cuckservative?"

4. The Liberals win a majority

If the Liberals get a second majority then the gloves will come off and the arrogance and corruption will go through the roof. They’ll no longer be looking to prove themselves with any attempt at measured government. They’ll go all in on their leftist schtick. Plus the big corruption will likely start to arise because they’ll believe that nothing matters and they can do no wrong.

Conclusion:

There is no good outcome from this election. The best we can hope for is a Conservative majority and then hopefully work to push our representatives towards our side of things rather than allow them to keep leaning left. If they win by leaning left, however, they will likely continue to do so. 

There are some wild cards that may arise. Maybe Bernier’s PPC will win a couple of seats and that would be enough to form a coalition with the CPC. Maybe the Liberals win a minority and the CPC and NDP form a coalition. Maybe it all comes down to one seat and everyone’s favourite box-wine aunty holds the balance of power. 

We won’t have a good idea of how this election will go for quite a while yet. Remember that at this time during the 2015 campaign all the polls were showing Thomas Mulcair and his NDP were set to win a minority government for the first time in history! It’s not until about ten days until the election that the polls matter...if then.

Conservative supporters need to prepare for these scenarios and act accordingly.

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