How A Surprise Conservative Majority Happens
October 1st, 2019 | EZ
This fall the Conservatives could be in for a surprise majority. I know what you’re thinking: the polls don’t show that.
Here’s a few reasons why it could still happen.
1. Left-wing vote splitting
Remember when Jean Chretien won a slim majority in 1997? This was due in large part to a centre-right vote split between the Progressive Conservatives and the Reform Party. In fact, throughout much of modern Canadian history, having two parties on the right of the political spectrum has divided the vote and allowed the Liberals to come up the middle. In the 1970s it was the Social Credit Party that siphoned votes from Robert Stanfield and Joe Clark. In the 1990s it was Reform/Alliance versus the Progressive Conservatives.
The Liberals have always had to contend with the NDP on their left, but they have been different enough parties in the past that they didn’t necessarily cannibalize each other’s vote. This time it’s different.
The NDP and the Liberals are both firmly in the “new left” category of woke post-modernism lurching toward ‘anything goes’ socialism. The old blue-collar NDP is gone and Liberal centrists are staying home. Both parties are targeting the same voting blocks of feminists, students, environmentalists and woke urban hipsters.
On top of this, the Green Party is soaring in the polls due to a never-ending climate change fetish that has relentlessly been pushed on young people over the last twenty years. All that planting and now it's finally time to harvest. The Greens are players and they will siphon votes from both the NDP and the Liberals.
2. What about Max and the PPC?
Max is going to prove to be irrelevant in the upcoming election. His party will siphon off hard-right votes from the CPC, but not enough to have much impact. I will be voting for the PPC, but I live in rural Alberta in a riding that votes 70% Conservative. People in ridings that are too close to call will hold their nose and vote Conservative.
In Quebec it is likely that Max will siphon Bloc voters attracted to his cultural and immigration angle more than anything else. The CPC will likely be unaffected.
3. No ‘Stop Harper’ movement
In 2015 the forces of progressivism rallied against Stephen Harper. His ability to stay in power for ten years annoyed and galvanized wide swathes of voters from coast-to-coast. This time however, the progressive forces have held power for four years and have felt disappointed. Meanwhile, conservatives are fired up and ready to turn out.
Disillusioned progressives combined with highly motivated conservatives means that we’re likely to see a radical swing in the electorate come election day. Turnout matters.
4. ‘Shy Tory’ Syndrome
When Margaret Thatcher stepped down as Prime Minister in the U.K. in 1990, her successor was John Major. When he called an election, the polls were not in his favour and many media pundits speculated that the Tories were done for.
When the results poured in on election night, John Major won a majority mandate. His critics were stunned. How did he do it? This event gave rise to the notion of the “Shy Tory”. This Shy Tory effect will likely be in greater supply in Canada than we’ve ever seen before.
Because our institutions and media outlets are so overwhelmingly left-wing, it leads to a culture of left-wing dominance. In this day and age, the progressive, politically correct way of the world has veered over into abject madness. Many quiet, normal people are tired of this madness, but are loathe to express their true opinions for fear of being labelled or attacked by the left-wing outrage brigade. We live in an era in which you can lose your job and have your life ruined simply for stating a politically incorrect opinion, like, “Climate change is a bunch of bullshit.” Or, “There are too many immigrants.” Or, “I’m tired of being forced to pretend that I care about celebrating gays.”
Many people will vote Conservative with the implicit understanding that this is a vote for a bulwark against the sort of progressivism that we’ve seen over the past four years. A return to normalcy, if you will.
"Meanwhile, conservatives are fired up and ready to turn out."
But they won’t advertise this. They won’t put a sign on their lawn. They won’t answer telephone polls. They’ll just quietly vote.
Again, the PPC may be a beneficiary here due to their more explicit opposition to this culture, however, many people will accept voting Conservative on a practical level. Even if the CPC isn’t as strident in their opposition to progressivism, at least they can win and remove the liberal excess from power.
What could happen on election night?
The regional breakdown could look something like this:
The Maritimes will be almost as red as 2015 with a few blue patches in traditional areas. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia specifically. The Liberal/Tory tradition here will hold and people will likely stay true to their Liberals.
Quebec will see the Liberals sweep Montreal as usual and the CPC could pick up a few more seats as Max and the Bloc split the vote.
Ontario is where the big wave could start. Downtown Toronto will be a dead zone for Conservatives as usual, but everything else could go blue. The Liberal-NDP-Green vote split will allow dozens of seats to slip over into CPC territory. We could see Conservatives winning ridings with less than 30% support all over Ontario because of this vote splitting dynamic.
The Prairies will be overwhelmingly blue. Every seat in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be Conservative and Manitoba will only have a couple of non-Conservative seats. This will be due less to the three-way split and more to the seething hatred of Trudeau’s Liberals.
British Columbia is poised to be the best and greatest example of Conservative positioning. The Liberal-NDP-Green split should prove to be massive, allowing the Conservatives to take the majority of the province’s seats.
So don’t mind the polls. Watch for a Conservative majority this fall.
© 2019 Poletical