Ending The Obama Era
September 1st, 2012 - T. Carter
“They don't have to like [Romney], they just have to know he can get the job done. People don't care about his bedside manner, they care about his surgical skills.” - Mike Huckabee
In terms of charisma, shrewdness, and personality, Mitt Romney is not a strong candidate. He will make an excellent president, but to see that, Americans will have to look beyond the exterior to see Romney's true substance. On the morning of November 7th, Americans will wake up to realize that Romney didn't necessarily win, but that Obama lost.
Romney's lack of favorability amongst most Americans is consistent in most opinion polls. This doesn't mean that they won't elect him or that Republicans won't turn out in droves to choose him as the country's next president. This election is about America and its future, not about who can throw the biggest parties with the most celebrities. Americans understand this more today than they did in 2008.
Opinion polls are showing stronger enthusiasm amongst Republicans than Democrats, and Democratic enthusiasm is down sharply from 2008. The reasons for this may have something to do with Obama's failed message of hope and change. In 2008, Obama won the election against a dull and lackluster Republican named John McCain. 7% more Democrats showed up to vote than Republicans that year. Since then, the Republicans have begun to rebuild their image following the Bush Administration. Candidates like Ron Paul and Paul Ryan have infused the party with a Reagan-esque energy that takes the party back to a time when liberty and personal identity mattered more than collectivism. On November 6th, the election will be won by the candidate that spurs the most enthusiasm, and this time it will take more than charm, poetry, and a smile to get the job done.
Romney and Ryan have become candidates of substance and meaning, while Obama continues to be what he has always been: a man of empty words and no real message. Obama is the Democratic Party's attempt to entrap Americans in a system of entitlements and false security. The party has always tried to expand the size and scope of government, and individual liberty has never really been a part of their platform. The Democrats are today what they have always been: the party of slavery. Obama is nothing more than a salesman for big government.
What will drive this election won't be the enthusiasm for a particular candidate but the enthusiasm for America. Bringing back the gold standard, firing Ben Bernanke, auditing the Fed, securing internet freedom, cutting social programs and eliminating the deficit have all become parts of the new Republican agenda. In contrast to the Democratic agenda of bigger government, more spending, and more reliance on social programs, this message sounds fresh, brave, and optimistic. As Americans watch the national debt soar out of control under a Democratic leadership, it's hard to believe that anyone will prescribe four more years of the same remedy.
By 2016, it is estimated that an additional 4 trillion will have been added to the national debt.
The Republican agenda of independence, transparency, debt slashing, and individual freedom to earn wealth go against everything the Democratic Party stands for. So much so that The Huffington Post recently published a column by Michael Farr condemning Romney's call to audit the highly secretive Federal Reserve. Farr defended the Fed's confidentiality and ridiculed the Republican plan as “moronic”.
This year's election will be one of the hardest fought in decades, not only on the campaign trail but on the media front. America has become so polarized by its two mainstream political parties that a small 5% margin of independents and swing voters could determine the country's next president. That is only if both parties are able to drive an equal amount of supporters and registered members to the polls. This election may very well come down to who can inspire more voters to take time out of their day to cast a ballot. So far, it looks like the Republicans are two steps ahead of the Democrats. It's now up to Romney and Ryan to keep the momentum. If they fail, the election may again fall into Obama's hands.
At around this time in 2008, John McCain was trailing Obama by an average of 2% in most opinion polls. This time, the margin is slightly slimmer with Romney trailing by only 1% on average. The poll numbers are similar to 2008, but the dynamics of this election are far different, with a difference in voter enthusiasm being the official game changer. As long as the economy is in the dumps, Democratic enthusiasm will remain low.
The University Of Colorado's election model, which has successfully predicted every election since 1980, has projected a Romney win based on a state-by-state analysis. The analysis pinpoints the economy as the key to Romney's election victory. If economic factors in the US don't improve by November, the model predicts that Obama will only be capable of winning 218 electoral votes, leaving the rest to Romney. In terms of popular support, Romney would also win that with 52% between only the two candidates. This is unlikely, as there are third party candidates, including the Green Party and the Libertarian Party. A scenario reminiscent of 2000 could play out, with Obama just barely edging Romney in actual votes, but failing to win the required 270 electoral votes. This, too, is unlikely. The most likely scenario would see a slim Romney electoral win with 49% support and perhaps 48% for Obama.
Since economic factors are often subject to political spin, the Romney campaign will have to do everything that it can to convince voters that even the slightest bump in job numbers is not enough to qualify as growth. The campaign will have to work hard at making sure that Americans understand the nation's imperative and crucial debt crisis. With such a high national debt – and no sign of it slowing – economic growth and confidence are nearly impossible. This will be why Democrats, too, will be making every effort to spin the slightest economic growth into something spectacular. It will be up to Romney to deflect such falsehoods and keep Americans focused on the impossibility of true, sustainable growth under such horrific debt. Romney and Ryan will have to make sure to articulate the message that America's economic sustainability for the long term is in danger of complete collapse. If the Romney campaign succeeds with its message, they will win the election and put an end to one of the most destructive presidencies in US history. They will effectively end the Obama Era.