Establishment Panic! 

February 1st, 2016 | T. Carter 

trump sanders

The Democratic establishment has rarely fractured or had the same kinds of division as the GOP. This time, both parties have an angry upsurge of enthusiasts looking to end the status quo in Washington. It is still very unlikely that Americans will see Bernie Sanders win the nomination on the left, but on the right, conservatives are embracing a revolution that will end the Bush and neo-con eras for good. On the left, things will likely fall into place for the establishment, as usual.  

Democrats aren't keen on change. They cut down and call out conservatives as old, white folk who are unwilling to move forward. Yet, Democrats have seldom shown an inkling to shake things up and take a chance on someone who strays from party lines and refuses to do any toeing. They've consistently chosen old fashioned socialism disguised as change. What's different about Bernie Sanders is not that he offers a fresh, less socialist perspective for a party that has veered into the deep left under Barack Obama. The difference between Clinton and Sanders is their connections.

Clinton has undoubtedly been forced further to the left by the rise of Bernie Sanders than she was in 2008 by the rise of Obama. Both candidates, however, are still spreading the same fictitious narratives. What sets them apart, is their connections to the heavy, left-wing donor class. Unlike Clinton, Sanders has few backers inside that coveted class of opportunistic corporatists and megalomaniacs. This makes him more similar to Donald Trump than any other candidate in the running. 

Unlike his GOP opponents, Trump stands apart from the traditional establishmentarians on the right. On the Democratic side, Sanders and Clinton compete to out-talk one another with the exact same catchphrases and fictitious dramas about income inequality, gun violence, sexism and racism. On the Republican side, all the candidates talk big on amnesty and illegal immigration after they've all spent years supporting it. They all talk about the grassroots after taking million dollar checks from the right-wing donor class and Wall Street. They all blur together. Among them, only one candidate stands out. While the two Democratic front-runners and all the Republican candidates blur together, Donald Trump stands out and apart from all of them. 

Only Donald Trump can say he is running a self funded campaign, independent of the Koch Brothers, George Soros, and all the big men with big ties to corporate and international interests. Even though his views don't differ too greatly from Barack Obama's Democrats, Bernie Sanders can also say the same, except that he isn't self funded. Unlike Clinton, Sanders has raised most of his campaign funds through several, small grassroots donors.

The rise of both Trump and Sanders has caused an establishment panic in both parties. The donor classes that have controlled every Democratic and Republican primary since 1988 have lost their grip on both sides in 2016. 

By the time November arrives, out of two candidates seeking the White House, only one of them will be a true, anti-establishment candidate capable of upending the status quo. It seems less likely that Bernie Sanders will win enough delegates to defeat the Democrat elites. The story will not be the same for Republicans. At this point, it seems the Democrats will elect their typical, heavyweight establishmentarian, which could turn out to be Joe Biden if Hillary Clinton is indicted for mishandling secret government data.

Word around the Democratic campfire is that Biden is in waiting to ensure Sanders doesn't upend the Democratic establishment. If Clinton is indicted in the middle of primary season, voters could shift to Sanders and O'Malley and delegates that have been elected could do the same. This makes Joe Biden the Democrats' plan B.

It's not just Clinton's impending legal troubles that will convince Democrats to place their bets on Biden. According to Dick Morris, the Democratic establishment may see Clinton's sinking popularity among women and blacks as a reason to push Biden into the mix. 

"Among all voters, she used to be beating Trump by ten points, now she's losing to him by three...And the entire change has been among women voters. No men voters." – Dick Morris

A recent SurveyUSA poll found 25% of blacks supporting Trump. The highest number ever achieved by a Republican candidate was 12% in 1996, by Bob Dole. A newer poll conducted in December by Clout Research has put support among blacks as high as 45%. If these numbers were to continue into November, Donald Trump would win the White House with a landslide. Even with 25% support among blacks nationally, Trump could win Michigan, Illinois and Virginia. All three states went blue in 2008 and 2012. Illinois has been blue since 1992, but Trump's support among black voters could turn Illinois red for the first time in 24 years. In 2012, a majority of white rural Illinois voted Republican. A shift in black support in urban Illinois would drastically change the outcome in 2016.

The deepest blue portion in the top right of Illinois represents Chicago and its metro area. The rural areas in the south have a higher white population, which includes Mount Vernon, Harrisburg and Marion. A successful Trump candidacy could unite the lighter blue portions of the state. Even if Trump fails to win Chicago's urban core, converting the light blue rural areas would be enough to tip the scale and win Illinois's 20 electoral votes. 

Taking Virginia, Illinois and Michigan away from Democrats wouldn't be enough for Trump to win. If he's able to keep what Romney won in 2012, those three states would only put Trump at 255 electoral votes, leaving him short by 15. Winning Florida would solve this problem. Without Florida, Trump would need a combination of swing states to reach or surpass 270. Another single state solution for Trump, if Florida is out of reach, would be Ohio. In 2012, Romney only lost Ohio by 166,000 votes. Florida was much closer with a margin of 74,000, but Trump's position on deportation and immigration could turn the state's large Latino population toward Clinton or any other Democrat. The latest poll says that even Latinos are backing Trump at 38%, but only time will tell.

Ohio's 18 electoral votes with other swing states would be enough to win Trump the White House with a slight demographic shift among black voters.

Blacks only make up about 12% of Ohio's population, but even small margins like this could be enough to tilt the race in Trump's favor. A 10% shift to the right among blacks across America would break the Democratic Party's blue wall, or at least put holes in it. 

The chances of Republicans taking Illinois have never been greater with any candidate as they are with Trump.

As the GOP establishment panics, they're overlooking Trump's appeal to the black voters who have been disenchanted and disenfranchised by the GOP's lack of populist appeal and penchant for big donors and millionaires. For the first time since the Civil War, American blacks are warming up to a candidate that doesn't need handouts from lobbyists and Wall Street. The very elements within the Republican Party that have turned blacks away is now being shattered by Donald Trump.

Trump's anti-establishment, populist message is resonating with black voters in every corner of America. For the first time since emancipation, blacks are feeling comfortable calling themselves Republicans and their ideas about the Democratic Party are becoming sour. The old party of slavery is regaining its title. That's something Republicans of all stripes should be proud to see happening with Donald Trump. Rather than rally against him and try to recapture their hold, establishmentarians should stand behind him. In the end, the GOP will be stronger than ever before.