Fertility Rates Have Plunged
March 1st, 2022 | JH
It looks like one of the big consequences of Covid is plummeting fertility rates. While many people thought having billions of people locked up together for months on end with everything shut down and nothing to do would naturally lead to a baby boom nine months later, it appears that the stress, fear and economic impact has instead led to record levels of decreasing birth rates.
This coincides with a long-term decline in fertility throughout the world over the course of the past 45 years. China has recently announced the introduction of a three-child policy in hopes of bolstering their dearth of births. If current trends continue China will have about half as many people in 100 years as they do today.
Another big milestone is India. The data isn’t in yet, but it looks like India has fallen below the magic number of 2.1 (2.1 kids per couple in order to maintain population stability. The .1 is the account for premature deaths before the age of 18.) This means India has now begun the starting point for a below-replacement fertility rate; a magic number that when crossed, usually never again rises above. India will still grow for the near term, but 20 years from now their labour force will stop growing. 30 years after that, their total population will begin to decline.
Two of the biggest most populous countries in the world have now set their paths.
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The biggest country in South America (Brazil) has had below replacement fertility for over a decade now. The entire continent of Europe has been below replacement for a generation. As have other developed nations like Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Even the United States… a country that bucked the trend in the 90’s, has been below replacement since 2010.
Most of the world has below replacement fertility levels, and now Covid has made the situation even more severe.
There has typically been three reactions to this development.
1. Environmentalists love it
Environmentalists fundamentally hate people and civilization, and this outward expression of hatred is likely an outward directed rage against their own hatred of themselves and their secret love of civilization. Kind of like an Incel shooting women, environmentalists express their penance by raging against existence itself.
A below replacement fertility resulting in a declining human presence on Earth is a good thing in their minds and they are all for it.
2. Economists hate it
Both conservatives and liberals view our modern liberal capitalist social democracy as self-evidently good and complete. The problem with the system that has worked so well throughout the 20th century is that it relies on never-ending growth.
The beloved social welfare state with untouchable programs, like old age security and national pension programs and universal or government provided healthcare systems, all require a bigger and younger population working and paying into a system that is used by a smaller cohort of older recipients.
In the 1940’s and 50’s this was not a problem when the population pyramid was actually a pyramid. Now that most countries have population pyramids that look more like population beer glasses… on their way to being population spinning tops, these social welfare systems will not be sustainable.
New solutions must be found, but this change from the status quo is usually seen as threatening to narrow minded centrists in favour of the status quo.
3. Conservatives have been alarmed by it
20 years ago, Pat Buchanan wrote The Death of The West and Mark Steyn wrote, America Alone. These books raised the alarm regarding the decline of the Western World. More precisely…white people were not having enough kids to maintain their historical power.
Woke progressives loved this development and traditionalists were fearful of it. The Great Replacement debate has been driven largely by the abdication of white people breeding enough offspring to keep point #2 feasible,thus requiring mass immigration as a band-aid solution.
It is what it is.
There’s a lot of silver linings to the hand wringing that has been going on regarding these developments. I would argue that our crashing fertility may have a multitude of long-term benefits that will make the future very conservative friendly indeed.
The opening of the movie Idiocracy featured a side-by-side split screen of an upper-class couple extremely trepidatious about having kids because everything in their lives wasn’t quite perfect yet. On the other side of the screen a low-class couple was recklessly breeding (in and out of their marriage) with abandon.
"Two of the biggest most populous countries in the world have now set their paths."
The upper-class couple conceived zero kids, while the low-class couple had an exploding family tree fueled by alcohol, lust, and stupidity.
The gag of the movie is that a normal man is frozen for 500 years and wakes up in the future only to find himself the world’s smartest man.
If you’ve got an above average IQ (and you’re reading Poletical… so probably) you likely lament at how fantastically dumb the modern world is becoming. Perhaps the thesis of Idiocracy is correct and the dumb people are breeding the most, but other factors could also be in play.
Cut through the noise of media, mainstream and social, and dismiss the loudmouths that fire off their half-baked opinions about everything, and I’m not convinced that society is necessarily getting dumber, so much as it has been dumb all along and modernity just has new ways of revealing this to us.
In terms of breeding, I would suggest that many factors in modernity are encouraging better quality kids born to better quality people overall.
The main reason for this is that our culture is currently and has been sending messages to young people for a very long time warning them of the dangers of unwanted pregnancy. These messages have woven themselves into the culture to such an extent that the general zeitgeist preaches that children are a luxury item to be indulged in only upon achieving success. Everything else must come first. This includes: education; a good job; a stable relationship/marriage; an even better job and the money that comes with it; life experience; owning a home and then… if you get all that… try to squeeze out a kid before you’re 40, but don’t worry about it if you don’t because you can travel and buy a dog and that’s just as good and probably even better.
The traditionalists amongst us know that this is a disordered worldview propagated by consumerism, materialism and secularism, but we all get trapped by it to some extent or another. Stability and marriage and money are all good things, but putting children last as a function of living has led to a collapsed fertility rate and the trouble that comes with it.
And yet… people still do have children. Why?
Throughout human history children have mostly been the by-product of the desire for sex. This is nature’s way of getting us to reproduce. Our higher order thinking, however, has seen humans trying to prevent the consequences of sex for centuries. Contraception and abortion are not new inventions, they have been around for thousands of years. Today though, wow… science and technology have never made it easier for women to avoid pregnancy and avoiding it they are!
Consequently, the children being born these days are born intentionally and with great expectations. Parents care about their children and are engaged. Education is valued more than ever. Thoughts regarding culture, entertainment, and behaviour are far more intentional than in generations past. Opportunities for children are unbelievable and programs both public and private cover every angle that an involved parent could desire.
This doesn’t mean every mom is some kind of tiger mom (or should be) or that there aren’t loads of exceptions and remaining problems, but the future is built by those willing to build it and as time marches onwards, the generations…despite their problems…are selected for life by those willing to sacrifice and work and do so consciously and intentionally.
People who bother to breed are becoming radicals. Modernity provides soft pushes and financial penalties towards avoiding the responsibilities of bothering with children, so creating some anyway makes the individuals choosing to do so countercultural. Breeding against the grain of modernity is going to create better and more robust generations moving forward.
Our anti-life progressive cultural hegemony has created an organic form of conservative eugenics. For every university educated feminist that prefers wine and cats to kids, you’ve got a Mormon stay-at-home mom with a family of five. For every white-collar urban couple that decides to travel rather than breed, you’ve got a suburban couple with two kids talking to their neighbours about critical race theory terribleness…and those neighbours have two kids as well.
Now sure, these are glib illustrations and there’s loads of exceptions to this. I know full-bore communist supporters that have kids so this thesis isn’t meant to be total. I am also aware that parents only have so much influence on their children and the culture can corrupt them just as it did when leftists in the West made their “long march through the institutions”.
But times are changing. Reactions are occurring. Consequences are unfolding.
With Covid driving down the birthrates even lower than the recent historical norms, the people choosing to have children are going to be more intentional about it then ever before. Big picture…this will be good for our side in the long run. Every branch of the woke progressive hegemony we currently have in charge is inclined to not reproduce, leaving a wide open field for traditionalists, conservatives, pro-lifers and the faithful to fill up their quivers and demonstrate how the future is really built.
100 years from now we could be looking at a very different world due to selective and intentional breeding. Probably a far more religious world made up of mostly Christians and Muslims.
The Amish in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania could make up a majority of the population. There are currently 270,000 Amish people and their population doubles every twenty years.
Utah and the surrounding border could look like Mormon theocracies.
The trend towards global urbanization could be long over with people out of cities and living more spread out across every land.
Innovation and technology could be progressing far beyond what we can currently imagine, as sophisticated solutions will need to be found to an ever-decreasing labour force.
Inherited wealth and worker shortages could make the average person’s standard of living so far above and beyond where we are today that it is almost unimaginable.
Homosexuals and people with disordered sexual identities could be almost extinct, assuming there is a genetic fundamental behind most of those proclivities, because homosexuals won’t be breeding inside fake heterosexual relationships like they were forced into up until the 1980’s.
Nobody will care about global warming anymore as emissions will be crashing along with the population.
Half the world will be young and black and in or from a highly religious Africa.
It will be a very different world indeed, but as with most “problems” the hand-wringers of today need not worry about the future. It will take care of itself and it will look nothing like the woke progressive liberal democratic, secular hegemony of today.
Have you seen this video?
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