How A Last Minute Shift Could Make A Majority Government
October 20th, 2019 | RR
If polls are any accurate indication (which many believe they are not), I'm sensing a last minute shift in voter sentiments. This will either result in a nightmare, or a potential Conservative majority. Or, it could result in an even more extreme deadlock as all sides rush to the polls to make, or prevent, change.
On election night (tomorrow), we may be in for a shock.
I'm not much of an optimist when it comes to the Canadian electorate, so bear with me here. I will insert some positive scenarios as we go along, but let me start with what I sense is happening right now.
An NDP/Green Panic
I remember Alberta's 2012 election like it was yesterday. Polls showed a possible Wildrose majority on the eve of the election. Unfortunately, it never materialized because the province's progressives panicked and shifted their support away from other parties and to the more centrist Allison Redford.
I sense the same may be happening right now as a deadlock looms over Canada. The possibility of a Conservative government is scaring the crap out of progressives and it may be causing them to shift their support toward Justin Trudeau and the only "progressive" party capable of forming government: the Liberal Party.
I'm not making this up out of thin air. The polls are showing it.
Abacus, Nanos, Leger, Campaign Research, EKOS and Mainstreet have all either showed the NDP and Greens stalled, or sinking within the last 48 hours. The NDP peaked at 18% last week, but now their numbers seem to be receding. Had this only been happening to the NDP, I wouldn't be as concerned, but it looks to be happening to the Greens as well.
Leger shows the Greens sinking to 6%, down from 10% just a month ago. Nanos and Mainstreet show them hovering around 7% as of October 18.
As for the NDP, they're down to 17% or 16%, according to Abacus, EKOS and Campaign Research. This downward trend seems to have just started within the past few days. If it's true and both the NDP and Greens are sinking, their support is going somewhere else and it most definitely is not the Conservative Party. All the latest polls confirm where that support is going: Liberals are now averaging 33%, up from 30%. If this keeps going, Trudeau will win another majority tomorrow night and it will shock a whole lot of Canadians.
The sad part of this is that Canada's progressive vote numbers are huge, meaning that any panic Conservatives might be feeling would be offset by a massive shift in support toward the Liberal Party. If Conservative voters rushed the polls, they would still be outnumbered by leftist voters.
If I'm wrong, or if the polls are wrong, and Green/NDP support stays strong, we could see a Conservative rush that leads to a surprise Conservative majority.
However, I'm not going to hold my breath.
A Conservative Majority
It would take a huge amount of optimism to believe Conservatives can pull this off, but I've seen crazier things happen before. In Alberta's last election, Jason Kenney broke records and the same polls showing Trudeau ahead also show that a majority of Canadians (52%) want change. So, the possibilities are there. I wouldn't be entertaining them if they weren't.
In the past two elections, all major pollsters under-estimated Conservative support by 2%. Conservatives have been known to rally in great numbers during times like this, so I wouldn't be surprised to see voters come out of the woodwork to support a change in government. People who have never been polled and people from every corner of the country may turn out not just for Conservatives, but for the NDP, Greens and PPC.
That brings me to the third possibility.
A Panic On All Sides: Total Deadlock
Polls are currently reflecting a deadlock. If all sides panic, including potential Green supporters who think Trudeau is inadequate and that Scheer is a denier, it could still result in the exact deadlock we are seeing in the polls. Or if socialists want to end Trudeau's "capitalist" corruption, they could stick with Singh. Even with an historic turnout and with first-time voters coming out to play, we could see a minority deadlock. This would likely result in an anti-Conservative coalition, but uncertainty would become the name of the game for at least the next two years.
Bloc supporters in Quebec seem to be amped up. Conservatives are amped. Socialists are amped. Environuts are amped and people who may have never voted before seem eager to play a part in our democracy. All of this could prove the pollsters right. If so, we are in for a long two years.
If we see an equal balance of panic and desire for change, we will see a deadlock tomorrow night. If Conservatives manage to somehow out-panic progressives and combine that with an anti-capitalist, socialist desire to punish Trudeau, we could see a shocking result. If progressives out-panic everyone else and rally behind Liberals to stop Conservatives, we will be stuck with four more years of Justin Trudeau.
See you tomorrow, conservatives.
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