How Leslyn Lewis Wins

June 18th, 2020 | RR

Imagine what the headlines could be on the day after the Conservative leadership vote in August. We here at Poletical aren't ones to care about race and gender, but having a black woman win the leadership would force our mainstream media into a corner. They've been avoiding her candidacy and going out of their way to ignore her, even going as far as mentioning Green Party leadership candidate, Annamie Paul, as “the first black woman to seek leadership for a major political party in Canada”. It is becoming obvious that Leslyn Lewis would flip the script in all the right ways. She would also neutralize accusations of sexism and racism—but the reasons to support her go far beyond any of that. She has proven herself as a capable and reasonable leader and, if her supporters vote properly in the party's ranked ballot system, she could easily become the next Conservative leader.

Before I go into the ranked ballot strategy, let me tell you why Leslyn Lewis would make the perfect leader for the Conservative Party and the perfect foe for Justin Trudeau.

Justin Trudeau

Our prime minister is a disgrace. His privileged lifestyle compelled him to dress up in blackface on numerous occasions while he was a teacher and—as prime minister—he forced out two strong women who opposed him on SNC-Lavalin. A third woman quit the Liberal Party after claiming that Trudeau had acted hostile towards her. When she informed him that she would not seek re-election, he yelled at her and told her that she did not appreciate everything he had done for her.

Justin Trudeau hasn't only lived a privileged life that afforded him the ability to mock racial minorities without consequence, he has acted in ways that suggest he has no respect for women—unless it is politically convenient.

Witnessing this disgraceful prime minister face a black woman with a PhD in the next election would make every Conservative's day. His lapdogs at the CBC and Unifor would need to fold themselves into pretzels to keep Canadians believing their narrative. Journalists would need a whole lot of luck to successfully paint supporters of Lewis as white supremacists.

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A win by Lewis would turn the tables and begin the process of exposing Canada's mainstream media. Make no mistake, the media will still try desperately to tear down Lewis and her supporters. When they do, Canadians will start to see the light. Every Liberal journalist will throw pasta at the wall, but none of it will stick.

Leslyn Lewis is exactly who we need. Every narrative the Liberals and their lapdogs have written will evaporate. Furthermore, she is articulate, educated and measured. She'll know exactly how to unite every facet of the Conservative Party and every region of the country. In the next election, Conservative members can pit a doctor with a PhD against the Liberal Party's drama teacher.

The choice is theirs.

How She Wins

Revision: this strategy assumes Peter Mackay is not a front-runner. A previous error referring to Sloan supporters refusing to rank a third choice has also been corrected with clarifications.

There are currently two camps inside the Conservative Party: the one that strongly opposes Mackay and O'Toole, and the one that doesn't. There are those who have been leaning toward Erin O'Toole, away from Mackay, only to realize that O'Toole is a part of the problem. Then, there are those who have always opposed both mainstream candidates from the get-go.

Those who support either O'Toole or Mackay do so with minimal zeal. At first, O'Toole stormed into the race spouting a bunch of researched talking points designed to appeal to real conservatives, then his support started to whither away when everyone remembered how weak he was in the previous leadership race. People are quickly realizing that both O'Toole and Mackay are cut from the same cloth.

As her message spreads across social media, without the help of mainstream media, Leslyn Lewis is gaining real momentum. She is quickly proving to be the candidate Liberals and media fear most.

To beat the O'Toole/Mackay camp, members of the Lewis camp can formulate a strategy to push for a victory. The CPC holds a ranked ballot vote, which redistributes the the second choices for each defeated candidate. The emerging pattern among eligible Conservative voters suggests that most of Derek Sloan's voters will choose Lewis as their second choice. Data also suggests that Sloan will be the first candidate to be eliminated and that some of his supporters may rank O'Toole second. They should refuse to do so and pay better attention to Leslyn Lewis.

"She is quickly proving to be the candidate Liberals and media fear most."

I'm not fully clear on how many choices the ballot will allow with only four candidates, but if it is more than two, there is a clear way to deprive both Mackay and O'Toole of votes.

Derek Sloan's supporters must refuse to rank either Mackay or O'Toole. If trends hold (in our own tracker), there is a good chance Peter Mackay will be the second person eliminated in the second round. By refusing to rank either Mackay or O'Toole as a second choice, Sloan supporters can successfully ensure that no further votes go to either candidate.

In such a situation that would make Peter Mackay the second candidate to face elimination, supporters of Derek Sloan are better off not ranking a second choice at all, unless it is Lewis. A healthy portion of Peter Mackay's votes are likely to go to Erin O'Toole, giving O'Toole a strong advantage.

Derek Sloan's supporters will make or break this race for Lewis.

If you're a supporter of Lewis and Sloan, you only need to rank two choices. Forget O'Toole and forget Mackay. Make Leslyn Lewis your first and only choice if you're a serious supporter. If you are a Sloan supporter, leave the third space empty, although it makes no difference. Even so, do not give other candidates your support. If you find yourself slightly drawn to O'Toole's rhetoric but still have hope for Lewis, bite the bullet and refuse to make him your second choice as a Sloan or Mackay supporter.

Forget Erin O'Toole.

There is a mathematical way for Lewis to win, but it requires strategy. Leaving Erin O'Toole out of every equation is the most effective way to ensure a win for Lewis. O'Toole supporters should think twice and Sloan supporters should forget O'Toole and Mackay. 

There is a fear among some Sloan/Lewis supporters that if they don't rank O'Toole, it could pave the way for Mackay—who they view as far worse than O'Toole. However, don't let this deter you. There is only one way to make Lewis your leader and it means forgetting about Erin O'Toole.

A Conservative Party led by Peter Mackay deserves to lose.

If you think Peter Mackay is a light version of Trudeau, you should have no problem with this strategy. If the two leaders are truly the same, we would lose nothing from another four years of Trudeau and gain nothing from four years of Mackay. If you really hate Mackay that much, it makes no difference. Something better would eventually emerge from the ashes of a dead CPC.

Let's make this leadership race count by making Leslyn Lewis the one and only choice on our ballot.

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