2016: There Will Be Tears
2016 is going to drive prairie socialists crazy. There are two big elections coming up this spring that will bury the lefty myth about conservatism being dead in Canada. After the NDP shocked Albertans with a majority and Trudeau struck down Harp Vader, lefties across the country started having loud, orgasmic outbursts about conservatism being stamped out across Canada. By the end of spring, they'll be back to crying foul and having twitter tantrums, just like the good old days between 2006 and 2015. It'll be hilarious.
In April, the Saskatchewan NDP will test their new leader, Cam Broten, against Canada's most popular premier. Although the NDP might snatch two or three seats from the Saskparty, it's unlikely that Broten will do any real damage. Minus a major scandal, the only way Broten could do damage would be by telling people he's Brad Wall and hoping they believe him. Even then, besides their obvious physical resemblance, Wall and Broten are miles apart on ideology and experience.
Speaking of physical resemblance, moving a few kilometres east takes us to Manitoba, where April spells election time. There we'll find Brad Wall's identical older brother, Greg Selinger, who will be serving his last term as the province's NDP premier. Come May, Selinger will have led his NDP government to the most planet-crushing collapse in Manitoba's history. It'll be perfect and beautiful. Unless you're a socialist, in which case you won't be sharing in our right-wing schadenfreude.
It was 2007 when the Saskparty shook off its ultra-conservative image and replaced it with something safe. Instead of offering immediate privatization, Brad Wall's new party opted to adopt an incremental approach. This approach has left most of Saskatchewan's crown corporations intact, the PST at 5% and unions in charge. It has been slow and painful in Brad Wall's version of “conservative Saskatchewan”, but it's better than what the NDP had to offer for 16 years.
There has been some progress since 2007, like the province's loosened grip on the oil and potash industries. It's Brad Wall's safe approach that has kept his approval above 60% in the birthplace of North American socialism. Socialists still like to shed tears on social media, but they aren't afraid of Wall like they were of Harper. Brad Wall is funny, charismatic, smart and completely disarming. Even during the Liberal refugee controversy, Brad Wall politely called for caution and restraint without being the angry, bigoted conservative his opponents wanted him to be.
Even Saskatchewan's bumpy economic situation in the midst of the oil crash hasn't softened Wall's approval ratings. Insightrix puts Saskparty support at 54% against the NDP's 25%. This is down from the 60% the party held last April. That lost 6% seems to have gone to the provincial Liberal Party – a likely result of the Trudeau majority.
Campaigns can change everything in a matter of just a few months, but it's hard to imagine a situation where the Saskparty's 29% lead could diminish enough to change the outcome. Wall's party likely won't re-win all of their 49 seats, but they definitely won't drop below 40. It's safe to say that the Saskatchewan Party will win another landslide, making Saskatchewan's election the most predictable of 2016.
Good old Manitoba. The place no one ever talks about, because nothing amazing or spectacular ever happens there. This is the symptom of 17 years worth of NDP policies. It's the same sickness that consumed Saskatchewan between 1991 and 2007. No innovation, no prosperity, no inspiration. That should have been Manitoba's motto for the past 17 years. Lucky for them, all of that's going to change in 2016.
As if things couldn't get any worse for the NDP, they chose to commit electoral suicide by re-electing Greg Selinger to the party's leadership. After a PST tax hike that Selinger promised would never happen, a caucus revolt almost cost Selinger his leadership. Lucky for Brian Pallister's PCs, Selinger survived. Or, maybe it wouldn't have mattered either way. The common expiration date for most NDP governments is 16 years or 4 terms. No provincial NDP party has yet survived to see a fifth term.
The rise of Rana Bokhari's Liberals is going to do the most damage. Insightrix puts her Liberals in an almost dead heat with Pallister's PCs at 36-39%. Most polls by Probe Research have put the PCs above 40%, with the Liberals and NDP sharing second place at around 25% each. The Insightrix poll puts Selinger's NDP at 19%, making anything other than a complete collapse impossible.
In a situation where Liberals are almost tied with PCs, a single debate performance could change the entire outcome. This means there's a chance that Bokhari could be Manitoba's next premier if Pallister bombs like Alberta's Wildrose leader did in the leaders debate. Even one small scandal or controversy could ruin a PC victory if Insightrix's numbers are accurate. What makes Manitoba's situation less predictable is the possibility of a complete NDP collapse, which has the potential to send the party's voters to Bokhari.
Insightrix is only one pollster. As of now, the others have put Bokhari's Liberals as low as the NDP. Unless Insightrix results are corroborated by other pollsters, it's more likely that the PCs will form the next government. This makes Manitoba's election the second most predictable of 2016.
The United States
Outside of Canada's prairies, the US presidential election could put Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in the White House. Of the three, Rubio would be the least likely to create mass hysteria. Trump would be the most likely to create waves of lefty meltdowns and crying fits on social media. If Trump somehow wins on November 8, Canadians will be able to hear heads exploding like fireworks. A Cruz win would sound more like pop-rocks, but it would still be loud.
A Trump/Cruz win would create a refugee crisis at Canada's border, with millions of progressives begging to be a part of Trudeau's happy, utopic dreamland.
Of these three elections, the US presidential race is the least predictable. Trump seems to have appealed to casual, non-voters. This is similar to what Alberta's NDP and Trudeau were able to accomplish. Trump's populist message could rally millions of disenfranchised Americans to rise up. However, fear of Donald Trump could do the same on the other side of the spectrum, to Hillary's advantage.
There's no way to know who will be the next president this early. But if Trump and Hillary end up as the choices, we can expect a historic voter turnout thanks to Donald Trump's extraordinary ability to rally Americans for and against his cause.
There Will Be Tears
Even leading up to the US election, lefties will spend most of the year crying and whining about things Trump or Cruz say and do. In Canada, however, we're guaranteed to see rivers of tears flowing out of Saskatchewan. If we're extra lucky and the stars truly align in 2016, we'll see another flood come out of Manitoba. This will be particularly amusing if the PCs win government with only 40%. In that case, we can look forward to four years of Pallister derangement and endless waves of leftoid conniptions.
Regardless of whether all three elections turn out in the right's favour, 2016 is guaranteed to set Twitter, Salon, Rabble and every progressive enterprise ablaze. No matter what happens in the US, Canadian conservatives and libertarians can sit back and enjoy the hysterics. This is going to be a great year.