Poilievre Will Shift Left, Betray Conservatives
August 1st, 2022 | JH
If you’re a Conservative voter like I used to be, you may have noticed a pattern. Every time there is a leadership race, candidates line up in the contest and promise all sorts of right-wing policies and solutions to the people voting for the next leader. Then, upon winning the leadership race, the candidate who is now the leader has to pivot to the “centre” (move left) in order to attract less strident conservative voters in the general election.
Erin O’Toole was the latest bait-and-switch candidate that we saw lead the Conservative Party of Canada, but we’ve seen it provincially too. Patrick Brown did it in Ontario. Jason Kenney did it in Alberta. It’s a timeless tale.
Now Conservative Party supporters are lining up in order to support Pierre Poilievre in hopes that he will be the one not to renege on his supporters and actually provide true blue leadership that centre-right Canadians hope for.
Will he deliver?
Pierre is doing what he needs to do to win, but upon winning he will shift left like all the others. He’ll likely do this in a much quieter and less egregious fashion, but shift left he will. The bigger question at this point is, does it even matter anymore?
1968 marked the point at which Canada became the post-modern socialist version of itself that we know today. Pierre Trudeau was the vanguard of a wave of progressive evolution that became the new Canada. He pushed things forward, further and faster than most Canadians really wanted, but nevertheless those pushes occurred.
The pushback occurred in 1984 when neo-liberal governments such as Reagan and Thatcher turned the tables and asserted their own agendas. Canada was hoping for that as well, but instead we ended up with Brian Mulroney. As Margaret Thatcher noted when asked what she thought of Canada’s new Progressive Conservative leader, ”Too much of the former, not enough of the latter.”
Mulroney spent most of his tenure trying to clean up the mess Trudeau left behind. The right flank of the PC party was an embarrassment to him and the infamous Reform split ruined Canada’s opportunity for real reform for a generation.
Then along came Harper. This was our last best hope. He had big ambitions and was prepared to set Canada right. After all these years we had someone capable, and competent and conservative ready to correct course and build the 21st century.
But then he failed. Five years of a floundering minority government was followed by another five of a wasted and tired majority. The system itself recoiled in disgust at the mildest of reforms and by 2015 the spawn of Trudeau resumed Canada’s progressive descent into left-wing (and now woke) insanity.
By the time the next election rolls around Trudeau will have been in power for ten years. The real systemic problems of Canada… declining productivity, shrinking foreign investment, stagnant wages, inflation, crime (and our grotesque “justice” system), housing bubbles, stagnant GDP, fertility rate collapse (and the mass immigration required to band-aid the consequence), annihilated military and insane cultural wokeness coast-coast, are either not being addressed or openly championed.
In all of this we’re supposed to expect a Pierre Poilievre led Conservative Party is going to single-handedly overcome the tides and set things, right?
It’s simply too late.
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The time for correcting course was 1984, but that moment was squandered. The second chance was perhaps Preston Manning’s Reform Party in 1993, but all they really did was demonstrate how populism is thwarted by the system. The third chance was Harper’s majority in 2011, but he failed to weaponize his power to effect systemic,generational change. By 2025, Canada’s cake will be baked. Much like how California is now a dead zone for Republicans, so too is the entirety of Canada for Conservatives. There’s a variety of reasons for this.
There will simply be too many immigrants in too many key cities for Conservatives to be nationally competitive. Sure, the CPC can attempt outreach and mobilization, but they’ve been doing this for years and what do they have to show for it?
2011 is often cited as the ability of Conservatives to win the immigrant vote, but Toronto was a fluke likely driven more by old white voters afraid of Jack Layton due to their memories of Bob Rae. Immigrant voters mostly hail from countries that don’t have white people traditions harkening back to the thousand years that it took for democracy to be worked out effectively. They’ll happily just vote for the party that offers them the most graft and if their local ethnic leaders and the mainstream media concur, then all the better.
Although wokeness is receiving substantial pushback in many Western countries around the globe, Canada is and will remain an outlier,conforming to the progressive hegemony for a variety of reasons including; a subservient dedication to niceness which wokeness preys upon, a smaller and more insular corporate sector influenced by HR indoctrination, a bigger and more robust public sector for which wokeness is a fundamental religion, propaganda from U.S. liberals that Canadians so desperately wish to emulate, and a general apathetic malaise in the character of the average Canadian.
Wokeness is the new religion of the ruling class and that makes political change virtually impossible. The debates, pushback and alternative competition we see in other Western countries is muted here. The real debate is to what degree is a potential leader woke enough. A slight lack of wokeness constitutes a wild and dangerous heretic unworthy of consideration.
"Pierre is doing what he needs to do to win, but upon winning he will shift left like all the others."
Poilievre is woke enough to be presented as a potential leader of the CPC, but he will still be an avatar for right-wing populist villainy when addressed by the hegemony of the progressive mainstream. In other words, despite some empty rhetoric (CBC defunding for example), Poilievre is further to the left than the average Jean Chretien Liberal MP was in 2002, but this won’t stop Canadian culture from demonizing him as the next Hitler.
The last factor is Trudeau himself. Poilievre is a Poindexter…Trudeau is a Chad. Trudeau has the soap opera star thing going for him and that sticks, especially for the women. Hypocrisy, scandal, incompetence…so long as he’s a high-status, good-looking man those progressive women will swoon… and vote. Those 30% of the liberal voting base are mostly women and they’ll dutifully line up in the voting booth the same way they’d line up for Michael Bublé tickets or Backstreet Boys reunion tours.
On a recent podcast called The Curse of Politics, former Conservative MP Lisa Raitt was a guest and she said many people she knows don’t think Trudeau can be beaten,period. His brand is too strong with too many people. He seems to have a floor of about 30% of voter support and barring some kind of miracle it will be difficult to change that number.
Too many immigrants, a hegemonic cultural of progressive wokeness, and superficial low-info voters (mostly women) will all conspire to deny Poilievre his win.
Canada has so many deeply fundamental problems brewing under the surface that it doesn’t really matter if he wins or not though. Having serious people ready to have serious conversations about serious solutions isn’t enough anymore. We’re going to feel pain soon regardless of who’s in charge or what they want to do.
Healthcare, economics, business, demographics, military, housing, education, debt, currency…everything is conspiring towards a rude awakening. We can’t just pretend little things need adjusting here and there anymore. Popularity contest winners aren’t equipped for solutions needed.
Perhaps these real-world problems will act in Poilievre’s political favour, but probably not. The 2020’s are going to be a time of great transition. I’ve written before about preparing for change. It’s likely that our problems will not have political solutions as that time has passed. We’re going to have to set aside our political hero worship and recognize Poilievre as the agonal respiration that he is. The system is cracking and instead of looking for the best repair man it’s high time we took out the sledgehammers.
The failure of Pierre Poilievre is hopefully going to be the wake-up call that conservatives coast-to-coast desperately need.
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