Why Poilievre Won't Beat Trudeau

August 1st, 2022 | RR

Conservatives are hoping to see Pierre Poilievre mop the floor with Justin Trudeau in the upcoming debates and federal election, but things aren't going to go the way they think. The cards are becoming more and more stacked against a Poilievre-Trudeau showdown, making our hopes and dreams less likely to come true. Sadly, unless an election is held within the next 6 to 12 months, we probably won't be able to witness the beautiful take-down of Justin Trudeau.

Don't worry, I'm not getting at what you think I'm getting at. Pierre Poilievre will go on to win the Conservative Party leadership and probably the next federal election with at least a minority government. However, he won't have the pleasure of beating Justin Trudeau—because Justin will probably step down before Poilievre gets the chance to wreck him.

Trudeau doesn't want to go out a loser. He most definitely doesn't want to lose an election to someone he despises more than Stephen Harper. Above all, the Liberal Party doesn't want to take another chance with him while his disapproval rating climbs further above 50%. A massive electoral defeat is in the works for the Liberals and they know it, which is why they'll encourage Trudeau to step down or face ejection before 2024. He has had two opportunities to win another majority, but his divisiveness and poor performance have robbed him of his original appeal.

It's game over for Justin Trudeau.

His tenure will be closer to ten years by 2024 and most prime ministers haven't lasted past a decade, no matter how good the economy has performed. After about eight years, the shine wears off, scandals pile up and voters get bored and tired. With the Bank Of Canada raising rates to crippling levels, the economy isn't likely to rebound by the next federal election and inflation won't be back to normal until late 2023. This means Canada's economic forecast will remain dreary for long enough to diminish Liberal support to 2011 levels and open the door for a new government.

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Ordinarily, ruling parties and their leaders get the boot between eight and ten years—no matter what. With the economy in the toilet, Trudeau's chances are worse than what is typical and ordinary. If he gets the boot this year, he will have served seven years as prime minister. If he gets the boot next year, he will have served eight years—which is right in the danger zone. Going into an election in 2024 as a prime minister that has served nine years, while the economy is slumping, is an historic recipe for disaster.

The Liberals aren't likely to take that gamble.

The entire world's economic forecast is unpredictable at the moment, meaning things may not rebound until long after 2024. If Liberals don't see a turnaround soon, or signs of optimism, they'll throw their boy wonder to the wolves sooner than expected.

Trudeau knows he is in trouble, not just with Canadians, but with his own caucus. He got a new haircut, started touring around the country and spewing new talking points to improve his image and to rehabilitate his brand. Whether any of it works is yet to be seen, but last month's haircut didn't seem to stir up anything but ridicule. As for policies, he is promising more free money and garnering harsher criticisms from established economists and columnists who know what more free money will do to inflation. Overall, Trudeau isn't offering anything new to anyone and struggling Canadians aren't likely to buy his repackaged horseshit for a fourth time.

Jagmeet Singh has spent the good part of a year being Canada's most favoured party leader, but his numbers have declined since the economy started sinking further into the hole. This is due mostly to his support of ongoing Liberal policies and his unwavering support of Justin Trudeau's government, despite revelations of yet another scandal involving the RCMP. Most of his criticisms of Trudeau have fallen flat and Canadians are aware that his hypocrisy and support for Trudeau invalidates his own talking points. If Singh was truly troubled by Trudeau and his policies, he would have ended the NDP's support for the Liberal government a long time ago.

All of this makes it more likely that the Conservative Party will be the most dominant party going into the next election.

"Trudeau knows he is in trouble, not just with Canadians, but with his own caucus."

Canadians have reverted to conservative policies during hard times in the past and they will probably do it again. More and more Canadians are tightening their own budgets and could vote for policies that tighten the government's budget. Poilievre's lack of resolve on many social issues will give moderates more ease and his fiscal policies will give fiscal conservatives momentum. His straight-talking nature and way with words will bring in part-time voters and defected CPC supporters from the PPC. With the CPC's newly released membership numbers, it's clear that a reckoning is underway in Canada and that voters are warming up to a new leader with a fighting spirit.

68% of Canadians refused to vote Liberal in the last two elections. With Poilievre at the helm of the Conservative Party, the cards will be stacked against Liberals. It won't be a walk in the park, but over time Canadians will get a taste of someone who can bring the fight to the doorsteps of the Laurentian establishment. A few debates against Freeland, or some other economically illiterate Liberal schmuck, should be enough to seal the deal for the Conservative Party in the next federal election.

Liberals will have their work cut out for them. After Trudeau, who do they turn to? Before him, they had no decent prospects.

Chrystia Freeland is a literal clown; Mark Carney is a central banker and a part of the club that miscalculated inflation; Naheed Nenshi is only famous in Alberta and despised in Calgary; Anita Anand doesn't know anything about anything; Francois-Philippe Champagne and Melanie Joly won't sell in the West; Ralph Goodale can't speak French and wouldn't sell in Quebec; Sheila Copps is a basket case and Harjit Sajjan is tarnished by scandals and nepotism. 

Of the top candidates, Mark Carney and Marc Garneau have the best shot at beating Pierre Poilievre.

There are very few Liberal prospects that could stop the incoming reckoning facing Canada's liberal class. Carney will have to defend central banks against their failed records, while Marc Garneau would have to remind Canadians that he was an astronaut—just to make himself seem less boring. Otherwise, the rest of the potential Liberal leadership field is looking even more bleak. Chrystia Freeland would try to avoid as many debates as possible in order to prevent her economic ineptitude from showing, making the Canadian electorate less trusting of her bravery and wherewithal to fix the economy. It's almost a lose-lose situation for her, unless she miraculously becomes a fiscal conservative.

Either way, the sun is rising for conservatives in Canada. Like always, we are here to fix the messes made by socialists and liberals. Even if they come back later to make more messes, we still get to extend the life of our civilization for another day. It's like a never-ending game of musical chairs that takes us to the brink of ruin every time, before conservatives step in to save the day for another go-around. Democracy in Canada is like perpetual cycles of self-destruction followed by short periods of reflection and repair. It's sad, but sometimes it can be fun.

Soon we'll get to see Pierre Poilievre wipe the floor with an incompetent Liberal. It's just too bad it probably won't be Justin Trudeau.

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