There Will Be Blue

October 1st, 2018 | T. Carter
blue wave 2018

There is a blue wave coming to flood America in November and there isn't a whole lot Republicans can do about it. October will be another month of polls showing a growing Democrat lead on the generic ballot, with very little gains by Republicans on a state level. When November strikes, Republicans will need a lot of luck to survive the Democrat wave coming their way. Even in traditional red districts, Republicans have struggled to keep their Democratic opponents away from their heels in recent special elections. This is a bad sign of things to come, whether Republicans want to admit it or not.



Doug Jones (50-48)


In December, Jones became the first Democrat to represent Alabama in the United States Senate since 1990. Alabama's Senate seat used to belong to Jeff Sessions, before Luther Strange was appointed to fill the seat until the special election on December 12. However, the first loss for Donald Trump was when Roy Moore defeated Luther Strange after Strange received Trump's endorsement during the GOP primary.


Following months worth of negative coverage and a sex scandal, Roy Moore lost to Doug Jones by a margin of 2%. In 2008, Jeff Sessions won the seat with 63% and in 2014 faced no Democratic challengers, winning again with 97% of the vote.


This seat will belong to Jones until at least 2021, as it is not in contest for this year's mid-terms.



Debbie Lesko (52-48)


This seat once belonged to Gabby Giffords, the Congresswoman who was shot in the head by a gunman in 2011. Debbie Lesko is a Republican, but she only narrowly won this Republican seat for Arizona's 8th Congressional District in a special election on April 24. Beating her Democratic challenger, Hiral Tipirneni, with 52% of the vote, Lesko achieved a dramatically narrow victory.


Her predecessor, Republican Trent Franks, won the district with 69% in 2016, 76% in 2014 and 63% in 2012.


Lesko's narrow victory hints at a potential return to blue in 2018. Voter turnouts are regularly lower during special elections, so Republicans will have to fight hard to keep this seat in Lesko's possession during the mid-term elections in November. With a slim margin of 52-48 in a special election, it's unlikely Lesko will be able to hold this seat for the GOP in the wake of a blue wave.



Troy Balderson (50-49)


Speaking of narrow victories, Troy Balderson was the first Republican in Ohio's 12th Congressional District to come this close to losing in almost 40 years. Narrowly defeating his Democratic challenger, Danny O'Connor, in August, Balderson was barely able to hold this seat with only 1,680 votes.


Republicans have held the seat since 1983, but that could change in November. The latest polls show another dead heat.



Polls In Texas


Of all places in America, Texas is always expected to be one of the most red. Texas belongs to Ted Cruz and John Cornyn in the Senate, but Cruz's Democratic challenger, Beto O'Rourke, is only trailing by 1-3 percentage points—which has been almost unheard of in previous elections in Texas. In 2012, Cruz beat his Democratic challenger by more than one million votes.


In 2006, Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison won Cruz's future seat with 62% of the vote. In 2014, Republican John Cornyn won his own Texas seat with 62%.


If narrow special elections around the country are any indication, we should be putting some faith in these opinion polls—despite our reluctance to believe them after the 2016 presidential race. If strong Republican districts like Ohio's 12th Congressional District are vulnerable, we should be less reluctant to believe Ted Cruz is in trouble.


Cruz will more than likely beat O'Rourke in November, but the lesson here is that other, more weak Republican seats across America could fall if Texas ends up being as narrow as polls are indicating. If O'Rourke beats Cruz, it could be an indication of a seismic shift right across America.  

The National Generic Ballot


Not one individual poll in the year of 2018 has shown Republicans in the lead on any generic ballot. There have been more than 400 polls this year from more than 35 polling companies and not one has shown Republicans with an advantage. Democrats lead with an average of 8% when all polls are factored in from January.


The latest polls do not show much traction for the GOP from state to state. Nationally, Republicans trail Democrats by 3% to 7%.


The latest Yougov/Economist poll shows Democrats leading by 4%.


The latest Fox News poll shows Democrats leading by 7%.


If any forthcoming poll happens to show a Republican lead of so much as 1% between now and November 6, it would be nothing short of a miracle. With about 35 Senate seats being put up for election and 435 House seats, November 6 will be the most pivotal moment in Donald Trump's presidency. Nevermind the Mueller probe or any of Trump's questionable business dealings that have been brought to light by Democrats—these midterm elections will be what determine if Donald Trump is still our president by this time next year.


If polls continue to look this unfavorable to Republicans and these results manifest into reality, Democrats could pick up between 30 and 40 seats in the House Of Representatives and possibly 5 new seats in the Senate. If this happens, Donald Trump is doomed.



Internal Polls


The real sign of trouble exists in the RNC's internal polling, which indicates a coming rout for Republicans this fall. The reasons for the rout are not what you would think, however.


According to leaked results from the RNC, Trump voters don't believe Democrats have a chance of winning this November and, therefore, could cost Republicans the election with their complacency. According to the leaked poll numbers, 57% of voters who call themselves strong Trump supporters do not believe Democrats will win in November.


The total result of the poll indicates that 71% of voters believe the Democrats will likely win in November. The internal poll paints a strikingly contrary picture between the real world and the world that Trump supporters have put themselves in. Only 25% said Democrats were unlikely to win next month and, of those 25%, a majority were strong Trump supporters.


This leaked RNC poll reflects a Trump base that appears to be increasingly out of touch with reality. This could be a problem for the GOP in next month's elections.



Impeachment And Possible Conviction


If Democrats take the House Of Representatives next month, impeachment proceedings will be sure to begin no later than next summer. If Democrats also take the Senate, Donald Trump faces a real possibility of being convicted and removed from office. People have pointed to the Mueller probe and Russian collusion as reasons for impeachment and conviction, but the entire probe has gone off the rails to include unrelated charges and offshoot investigations related to porn stars and Trump's personal business.


The reasons for impeachment and conviction are growing. In fact, it could be expected that Democrats will file multiple articles of impeachment before Summer. If their numbers are narrow in the Senate and their arguments weak, they should be expected to file several articles of impeachment until one of them finally sticks to the wall. Even with a small, one-seat Republican majority in the Senate, Donald Trump's presidency would be at risk.


Turnout among Democrats will be high next month. In order to stave off the impending Blue Wave, Republicans will need to turn out in larger numbers than ever before. Turnout among Obama Democrats was low for Hillary, but that was back when Democrats thought Donald Trump had no chance of becoming president. As of now, Democrats are mobilized and ready to electorally snipe Republicans on every level of government—this is obvious by the high turnouts in all of the most recent special elections.


Impeachment will be what grabs all of the headlines next Summer if Democrats take the House. By August or September, impeachment documents will be sent to the Senate for October and—if Democrats control the Senate—the first historic conviction of a US president will take place before New Years Eve 2020.



Saving Trump


If you would like to save this president, register to vote. This is especially important if you live in one the many toss-up districts. To help you with this task, here is a list of districts that could fall to Democrats. You will also find places and ways to register before next month.


In Texas, Ted Cruz needs your help to beat Beto O'Rourke. You can register to vote in Texas state and federal districts here: https://teamrv-mvp.sos.texas.gov/MVP/mvp.do


Visit his website, pledge to vote and donate to Ted Cruz's campaign here: https://www.tedcruz.org/keeptexasred/


In Florida, especially in the Senate race, Republicans need help to push Rick Scott over the line. House districts across the state also need your support. You can register to vote in Florida here: https://registertovoteflorida.gov/en/Registration/Index and visit Rick Scott's website here: https://rickscottforflorida.com/get-involved/volunteer/


For Arizona, Martha McSally needs your help to beat Krysten Sinema. Visit her website and volunteer here: https://mcsallyforsenate.ivolunteers.com/Account/Register and register to vote in Arizona here: https://www.dmv.org/az-arizona/voter-registration.php


In Indiana, Republicans need all the help they can get. Register to vote here: https://www.in.gov/sos/elections/2403.htm