Trump Won't Survive If This Happens
The left's campaign to impeach Donald Trump will not just be a fantasy if Democrats sweep into Congress next year. You may have noticed an advertisement running on several news channels that was paid for by Tom Steyer, who has been working for years to dismantle the Republican majority in Congress and the presidency of Donald Trump. The stones are being laid onto a path toward impeachment for Spring of 2019 and there won't be much Trump or Republicans can do about it with a Democrat majority.
The fake collusion narrative has exploded with Mueller's indictments, even though no links have been directly made to Donald Trump himself. That won't stop the left's campaign to remove Trump from office, as we have seen in Tom Steyer's advertisement that I will encourage you to watch before reading any further.
It is of importance to note that Tom Steyer himself, on his Youtube page, has disabled the visibility of his video's ratings, making it impossible for us to see how many dislikes his commercial has received. Had his campaign been a success so far, he would be proud to show off an abundance of likes that vastly outnumber dislikes—but this in not the case. Steyer has also disabled comments on his repugnant ad—an ad which aims to undo the results of an election decided by the American people.
If Democrats sweep to a majority in the House—or both—it won't matter how successful Steyer's impeachment campaign is, because it will become the Democrats' major priority in 2019. If Democrats happen to achieve sweeping majorities in both houses of Congress, Donald Trump's presidency could end in 2019 by impeachment and conviction—which would lead to removal from office. Although this is unlikely, it could happen.
For those unfamiliar with America's process, it is not as simple as a majority vote. To this day, no American president has been removed from office by impeachment and conviction. Impeachment is only the first process of removal, which only levels charges of wrongdoing against a president before going to the Senate for conviction. It is following a trial in the Senate, which includes testimony and witnesses from both sides, when a president is either convicted or acquitted. To convict, a two-thirds majority is required.
In 1998, Bill Clinton was impeached for perjury and obstruction by a Republican House, but acquitted by Democrats in a Republican Senate in 1999. It was the requirement for a two-thirds majority that allowed Clinton to be acquitted.
Slim But Possible
Successfully removing any president from office is near impossible without a strong Senate majority by an opposing party. However, in America's current political climate, anything is possible. With senators like John McCain—who is not due to retire until 2022—the possibility of Republicans voting to convict Trump following an impeachment by a Democrat House is very possible.
If Democrats carve out a slim majority in the Senate, Trump will need all the Republican friends he can get. If they manage to carve out a strong 55 seat majority, Trump will be in trouble if he makes too many Republican enemies.
If Trump continues to ratchet up hostility among Republicans anywhere in Congress, they could turn on him with the hopes of having a better working relationship with Mike Pence. After the 2018 mid-terms, the Senate will be where the Trump presidency lives or dies.
The likelihood of Republicans turning on their own president is slim to none, as it could come with fatal political consequences and backlash, but it should not be ruled out. With a strong Democrat majority in the Senate, backed by a Democratic majority in the House, only a few “mavericks” in the Republican Party could end the Trump presidency—mavericks just like John McCain, who have nothing to lose because they plan on retiring rather than seeking re-election.
How It Could Happen
At this time next year, the entire House Of Representatives and more than 30 Senate seats will be up for grabs in the mid-term elections. If Democrats sweep into a majority in the House, Donald Trump will be impeached for all of the reasons mentioned in Tom Steyer's television ad. If Democrats take a majority in the Senate, Trump could be convicted and removed.
If Trump's Republican enemies survive in the Senate, a slim Democrat majority could be enough to achieve a 65% vote to convict Donald Trump on charges laid by the House Of Representatives.
Tom Steyer's petition to impeach Donald Trump has reached one million as of the moment this is being published. The latest opinion polls (if we trust those) put the Democrats in the lead nationally on a generic ballot. We shouldn't trust CNN polls, but if they do offer any indication of things to come, they show Democrats with a 16% lead over Republicans—54% to 38%.
If CNN's latest poll is correct, there should be some jitters among Republicans. It will take more polls to determine whether Republicans should brace for a stunning defeat next year, but if they do face a stunning defeat, Donald Trump's presidency will be in deep trouble.
First Democrats will put forward a motion to impeach Trump inside of the House Of Representatives if they hold a majority. Then, a Democratic Senate will hold trials and vote along party lines—no matter how sparse or lacking the evidence against Trump might be. This happened with Bill Clinton and it would most definitely happen against Donald Trump. Democrats and some Never Trump Republicans should not be expected to vote without prejudice to acquit Donald Trump.
If Democrats fail to win a majority in the Senate but win the House, Trump will be impeached but not removed from office. This would be the same situation that faced Bill Clinton in 1999.
What Are The Chances?
The chances of achieving a 55 seat win for Democrats in the Senate is slim, but if Democrats organize and Republicans fail to muster enthusiasm among their base, it could be very possible. Republicans have a slim window of opportunity to pass tax reforms—or achieve a big legislative win—in order to improve their numbers. If they fail, there will be no reason for Americans to trust Republicans and give them another chance.
Even though they have held a majority in Congress, the Republicans have failed to repeal Obamacare, reform immigration, fund a border wall and agree on tax reform. If Americans don't see a Republican Congress and a Republican president achieve any important victories between now and next year, there will not be any enthusiasm to stay on the present path.
If Republicans fail to achieve anything, Americans will vote for change on November 6, 2018. That lack of achievement and thirst for change could lead to Donald Trump's impeachment and removal from office if Republicans aren't careful—even if it's not what Republicans wanted or intended. If Donald Trump is successfully removed from office by Democrats, Republicans will lose his very loyal base of supporters and be doomed for years to come.