Ten Reasons Trump Will Lose
Trump is going to lose in 2020 and here are ten reasons why…
1. Trump won based on his already established celebrity
All this long-winded analysis about populism and trade and blah, blah, blah… a huge fact of the matter is that Trump had huge name recognition going into the election. He was a New York celebrity since the 70s and a national name since the 80’s. He flirted with running for president since the George HW Bush era and his hit show The Apprentice made him a household name. People knew who he was, and they understood the brand.
This isn’t the first time Republicans have capitalized on name recognition. George W. Bush traded on the family name. Ronald Reagan was Hollywood famous before seizing the White House. Even Eisenhower had a brand name from his World War 2 exploits.
Hillary Clinton tried to sell her celebrity brand against Trump, but coat-tailing on her husband’s name didn’t have the same impact as a pop culture celebrity.
2. Trump barely won last time
107,000 votes in three states made the difference between winning or losing. Trump squeaked out a win that basically amounts to a rounding error. If the weather had been slightly different that day, he very well may have lost. With such a slim margin of victory the election of 2020 does not put Trump in a strong position.
3. Democrats thought Clinton would easily win
The polls and the media had built up such a pro-Clinton narrative that everyone thought Clinton was going to easily win. It seemed inevitable. Consequently, it suppressed Democrat turnout. Why bother voting if the result is already in the bag?
Next time around Democrats will be motivated big time… by the millions.
4. Florida will go Democrat in 2020
Amendment 4 was passed during this year’s mid-terms. This restores voting rights to people with criminal records. In Florida’s case… 1 million people can now vote.
Seems to me that most of these people aren’t going to be voting Republican.
Without Florida… Trump loses.
5. Since 2016, roughly 2.8 million immigrants have become citizens of the United States
Sure, many of these new U.S. citizens will head to Los Angeles and New York and just cast their Democrat ballots onto the pile of already Democrat stronghold states… but they won’t all be in those states.
Texas is the 3rd highest destination and Florida is the 4th. Arizona is also a popular destination. These three states could go blue in 2020, since immigrants tend to vote Democrat.
6. Democracy in the United States has become a racial headcount
Whites vote Republican and Non-Whites vote Democrat. That’s how the polarization of racial voting in a multicultural society such as the United States is shaping up. Since most immigrants are non-white and mass legal/illegal immigration has continued unabated under Trump, the Republican vote share will drop precipitously.
There was much talk in 2016 about how the United States may never see another Republican president due to demographic shifts in the make-up of the United States. People weren’t wrong about that, they were just too early.
7. Trump is too old
The job of President is crushing. Look at before and after pictures of Bush and Obama. They almost look like different people after 8 years. Trump will already be 74 years old when it’s time to run for a second term. Ronald Reagan was 73 when he ran for his second term. At these ages one should be fishing and reflecting, not attempting to govern the greatest country in the world.
8. Trump hasn’t delivered
Trump has been good for conservatism and the tide is turning. His biggest champions outside of Conservative Inc. are now his loudest critics. “This is turning into the Jeb Bush presidency!” they decry. Ann Coulter laments no wall. Richard Spencer is no longer hailing his leader.
Trump has been good, but not great. This goes with practical reality. It was doubtful that he was going to be capable of governing with as much command as he seemed to promise during the campaign. He brags about a good economy, but that may change due to reasons completely out of Trumps control. There’s still no real wall like he was making people imagine back in 2016. America is still the world’s policeman with forever wars still taking place. The new NAFTA is just the old NAFTA with a fresh coat of paint.
An exciting new Democrat contender holds more promise than an incumbent with a dodgy track record promising more of the same.
9. Trump is likely to run into a recession
It’s been ten years since the last recession. Historically this is one of the longest periods of expansion on record. A recession is due any day now. Unfortunately for Trump the next recession will likely happen during the end of his first term and he’ll be left owning the downturn just before people vote.
An association with an economic downturn is a disaster for a president running for re-election.
10. He has lost interest
Trump doesn’t have the same fire for the job that he had in his first year. The daily grind of being president wears on anybody and Trump doesn’t need the hassle. Another year of the boredom, criticism and gridlock he’s experienced, along with a sense that he’s not going to win a second time and he might even declare victory early and decide not to run again.
The only thing standing in the way of a Trump loss is the fantastic gong show incompetency of the Democrats. If Trump is running against Sanders or Warren or Biden or Harris… he’s likely to win big simply by looking better in comparison. The Democrats aren’t great at appealing to the median voter. They are veering into the zany-left fringe and seem emboldened by their collective hatred of Trump.
This will backfire.